NOTE
Cities
English translation of the original VNote “Cities”, preserving its structure with only necessary small corrections.
This is a historical learning note and may contain outdated or incomplete understanding.
Note: The original VNote structure and historical views are preserved. Product rules, returns, policies, and specific assets are time-sensitive; only clear errors or changed institutional rules are corrected minimally. This is not investment advice.
Historical-view record: the judgments about cities, population, and real estate below have a strong period-specific and subjective context. They are retained to show the learning perspective at the time, not as current city-investment conclusions.
1. Which Cities Are Worth Investing In?
- A city’s population attraction: economy-to-population ratio.
- Look at the “quality” and industrial composition of the urban population, such as high-tech industries versus heavy-industry employment.
- Whether it is a transportation center: here the note means public transit and metro connectivity rather than geographic centrality.
- Single-center or multi-center city: for a single-center city, the note preferred the main urban area; for a multi-center city, administrative districts and economic functional zones may also have value.
2. How Chinese Cities Develop
The following are historical judgments recorded in the original note:
Beijing compared with Washington (reducing economic functions), Shanghai with Tokyo (finance + technology, intercity lines extending to multiple cities), and Guangzhou/Shenzhen with San Francisco (Greater Bay Area complementarity).
The note describes two urbanization paths: developing large cities and in-situ urbanization. It argues that China initially emphasized the second and later shifted toward stronger large-city development.
It warns about fiscal pressure in smaller cities with population contraction.
It records concerns about GDP quality and local fiscal capacity, focusing on general public-budget revenue, land-transfer revenue, and local debt.
It describes a shift from “rich east, poor west” to “strong south, weak north.”
It compares large-city development to “Hong Kong-ization” and small-city development to “Japan-ization.”
It notes that cities compete to attract people.
It records period-specific views on Beijing/Xiong’an, Shenzhen real estate and Nanshan, Shantou, population contraction and housing prices, and shantytown redevelopment.
The note divides real-estate-market development into four stages from the demand side: first-time purchase, upgrading, investment, and speculation, with historical second-hand/new-home ratios.
It also records a simple urban-development-stage analogy: third-tier = industrialization, second-tier = residence, first-tier = CBD.
3. Chinese Urban Agglomerations
3.1. Pearl River Delta
The note records a series of period-specific observations about the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Guangzhou-Foshan, Shenzhen-Hong Kong, Shenzhen-Dongguan-Huizhou, the Shenzhen-Shanwei Cooperation Zone, Macau, and surrounding-city real estate.
It also preserves historical price snapshots and subjective investment judgments for Shenzhen districts, Foshan, Dongguan, and Huizhou. These figures and judgments are historical records, not current prices or recommendations.